After a turbulent 2025, ‘tariff’ arguably became the word of the year – exactly as we predicted. But what comes next?
Uncertainty is here to stay – in 2026, instability is the only constant. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, tariff and trade wars, increasingly complex regulations and growing volatility will disrupt global trade flows like never before.
In this context, 2026 will mark the shift of customs management from a back-office function to a strategic engine of supply chain resilience. Centralised data, proactive duty engineering and deep customs expertise will be essential to navigate challenges and risks, all while keeping global supply chains moving.
As shippers and logistics service providers enter 2026 with supply chain resilience and risk management at the top of their agenda, we’ve explored what resilience and risk actually means in the world of customs handling.
Here are the five key forces shaping customs and trade compliance in 2026:
- Customs management and talent
Businesses can’t control or predict shocks, but they can focus on what they can control – building strong foundations so they’re ready when turbulence arises.
Customs and trade compliance are undergoing a major organisational shift, from an administrative back-office burden to a strategic function with a seat in the boardroom. Decisions about procurement, supplier changes, rerouting, landed cost models and risk mitigation now depend on customs expert verdicts about origin, valuation, classification, licensing, duty engineering, FTAs and regulatory requirements.
This makes customs talent more valuable and scarcer than ever – in 2026, customs professionals will be in high demand! Companies will need to invest decisively in their customs management capabilities, by developing strong in-house expertise in combination with partnering with a trusted customs broker or outsourcing to external professionals completely to avoid non-compliance risks, delays and fines.
- Customs centralisation and data visibility
Supply chain resilience increasingly relies on advanced technologies: digital visibility, predictive analytics, real-time tracking and end-to-end dashboards. These tools are now standard when discussing resilience – yet customs data still remains the weakest link. Most companies lack customs data visibility simply because the data is scattered across multiple brokers, tools, formats and systems.
The solution is customs centralisation – not only operationally, but also through a consolidated customs brokerage model. Working with a provider that offers multinational coverage, advanced digital tools, or – even better – a complete Control Tower solution ensures all customs data is captured uniformly, enriched and integrated into core systems for master data management, analytics and planning.
- Compliance complexity – the rise of non-tariff barriers
This year has been marked by tariffs, which have now become a permanent feature of the to-do list for customs managers across nearly all industries. At the same time, companies have faced a trend that began several years ago and is set to intensify in 2026 – the rise of non-tariff barriers, especially the multiplication of new compliance policies. No region is spared – China is tightening export controls on critical minerals and high-tech goods, Europe is rolling out new green trade regulations such as CBAM and due-diligence rules and the United States is strengthening domestic-content rules and expanding controls on advanced technologies.
Companies will need to implement robust, risk-based trade compliance programs to meet these new requirements and, above all, embed them into their processes so they don’t become an additional burden.
- Proactive duty management
In 2025, most organisations were in reactive mode, adjusting quickly to tariff announcements and short-term shocks. Now it’s time to move from reactivity to structure by mapping global duty exposure, leveraging trade programmes, optimising origin strategies and securing refunds wherever possible. For many companies, 2026 must be the year they establish a framework which gives them visibility over the duties they pay, but above all enables them to identify every opportunity for savings or cost avoidance.
- Goods classification – the foundation of resilience
Amid all the complexity, the fundamentals still matter. Accurate goods classification is the backbone of any resilient supply chain. It determines duties, restrictions and regulatory requirements, and influences the total landed cost of every product.
In an environment defined by volatility, sanctions, trade wars and frequent tariff changes, correct classification enables companies to quickly assess the impact of new measures and adjust their sourcing, pricing and supply chain strategies with confidence. Regular goods classification reviews and strong integration into master data and analytics tools are essential to staying ahead of risk.
